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Money rotating out of Mag 7 & tech, into Dow, small caps & defensives. Nasdaq is the weak hand — watch 25,000.
AI capex fearsRussell at highsOil sub-$70
Week Ahead
catalysts
Mon 29
No major data. Quarter-end rebalancing.
Tue 30
Consumer Confidence · JOLTS · Nike, Constellation
Wed 1 Jul
ADP jobs · ISM Manufacturing
★ Thu 2 Jul
NONFARM PAYROLLS + wages — decision point
Fri 3 Jul
🇺🇸 NYSE CLOSED — Independence Day
Payrolls Playbook
Thu → DXY → your costs
Thu 2 Jul · 8:30pm SGT
June Jobs Report
--d --:--
🔥 Hot · >200K
⚖️ In-line · 150–180K
❄️ Soft · <100K
Equities
Tech down hardest, broad market wobbles. Risk-off.
USD / DXY
Yields up → DXY tests 101.80, breakout risk higher.
Your sourcing
Strong USD pressures THB + SGD → landed/freight costs rise. Lock forwards or pre-pay USD.
Equities
Relief; rotation continues. Modest green.
USD / DXY
Steady 101.0–101.4. Breakout delayed.
Your sourcing
Status quo. Normal hedging.
Equities
Relief bounce, small caps lead — unless weak enough to spark growth fear.
USD / DXY
Eases toward 100.37.
Your sourcing
Best case — softer USD = cheaper inputs. Window to pay USD bills.
Cross-Border Radar
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Alert Triggers
set these
🔔
Nasdaq < 25,000Tech breakdown — more downside
🔔
DXY > 101.80USD breakout — review FX hedges
🔔
VIX > 20Fear returning — size down
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Thu 8:30pm SGT payrollsThe week's decision point